While the UN prolonged the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) until at least June 2023 and is expected to prolong the mission further in the future, several western countries are pulling out of the mission. Which consequences does the withdrawal have, what lays ahead for Mali and what is needed to stabilize the situation in Mali as well as in other countries. By Raphael

First off we need to understand, what started the conflict in Mali, and how the political situation is today. The general conception for the start of the conflict is, that the returning Tuareg, a nomad group that lives predominantly in northern Mali and fought for Gaddafi during the Libyan revolution, returned to Mali after Gaddafi defeat and used the weapons to start a rebellion against the government of Mali. In this uprising they combined forces with several Islamic groups and took control of arts of northern Mali and doing so threatening the Government in Bamako. While this explanation is logical and sparked the start of the conflict, it undermines several internal factors that benefit the conflict and remain unsolved. The first factor is rooted in the financial crisis of 2008/9. Before the financial crisis, a large part of the population lived by growing and selling cotton to the state-owned company, that ensured stable prices and by that a living for thousands of families. During the financial crisis the Malian government was not able to keep buying cotton from their farmers and to ensure money inflow from the World Bank and the IMF the Malian government agreed to stop buying cotton from their farmers and to privatize the marked. This led to a price drop and pushed the farmers in extreme poverty. On top of that, Mali has one of the highest birth rate of the world, while the climate change leads to more natural disasters and makes more and more of the county inhabitable for the majority of the population. Almost one third of the population are in need of humanitarian aid. The lack of perspectives for the very young population leads many with only two options: flee the country or rise up in arms.

While France military intervention to stop the uprising of the Tuareg and their allies led to peace agreement in 2015 and the UN mission MINUSMA is stabilizing the country since 2013 the underlying problem – namely poverty – remains unsolved. Furthermore, the peace agreement does not include all groups in the conflicts. The Islamist groups remain active and are deducting assaults on UN-Forces as well as civilians to this day.

After several mass protests in Bamako the military conducted two coups and completely seized power in May 2021. The military coup and the installment of a military Junta weakened the cooperation between the Government and the UN as well as France, the main driver behind the mission. In the past year, the military Junta complicated the work of the UN Forces and invited the Wagner Group, a Russian Mercenary group, into the county. In response to this, France decided to withdraw all forces this year and Germany is to follow in 2024. While Germany seeks to stay until the next general election in the beginning of 2024 it is questionable how effective an already retreating Bundeswehr can ensure free and fair elections. The EUTM Mali, a European training mission, was also suspended.

With the withdrawal of France and Germany, the influx of Wagner mercenaries and the current government it is unlikely, that MINUSMA can effectively carry on their mission in the future.

It is difficult to assess what lays ahead for Mali, but a turn for the worse is likely. The economic problems of the country remain unsolved, while the birthrate and the effects of the climate change on the country keep on growing. With the turn towards Russia and away from former western partners, the Government moved itself in a difficult situation especially since the War in Ukraine, which isolated Russia internationally and is eating a lot of Russia`s and Wagners resources to support the Malian government.

While a stable Sahel region is in the interest of western countries, especially Europe, the current focus of European foreign policy is orientated towards East Europe (Threat by Russia) and China.

It is in the interest of Europe to limit the influx of refugees into the EU. Constant large refugee streams lead to an overburden of the social systems of European countries and can destabilize the social cohesion and by that help right wing nationalist parties to get into power. The best way to prevent mass movements towards Europe is to stabilize the economy of countries in the global south and bring perspective to the young generation. Evidence shows, that the birth rate as well as emigration shrinks with a stable economy, education and perspectives for the youth. MINUSMA failed to provide this for Mali. Since this is too much to ask from a UN Mission anyway, one should ask what else can be done to provide support for Mali as well as countries in the global south in general. One crucial step could be to support an economic system, that does not skim off profits from these countries to somewhere else, but instead support the local economy and by that fight poverty and build a sustainable economy.